Should NATO Keep Expanding?

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Welcome to today’s issue of The Debate Daily!

In today’s email: Tensions in Europe have escalated over the last two years as Putin continues to fight a war in Ukraine. More countries, including Ukraine, have been keen to join NATO but what impact would an expanding NATO have? We consider both the argument that a bigger alliance is a stronger alliance and the argument that expansion simply creates more potential conflict, making the West less secure.

By Jonah Levy and Kit Swift

The Headlines

  • Putin's Nuclear Remarks: Vladimir Putin warned Russia may use nuclear weapons if attacked with conventional weapons, signalling a shift in the country’s nuclear doctrine and raising global concerns.

  • Earth's Second "Moon": A small asteroid will temporarily be captured by Earth’s gravity, becoming a "mini-moon" this autumn. This isn’t the first time Earth has had a temporary satellite; previously, an object called 2020 CD3 briefly orbited Earth.

  • Meta's new glasses: Mark Zuckerberg debuted new augmented reality glasses and announced that Meta AI can now mimic celebrity voices, including Dame Judi Dench, signalling the next step in smart eyewear and AI innovation.

Debate #016

Should NATO Keep Expanding?

NATO secures our collective security and promotes shared Western values. It is fundamental to the safety of the West. At a time of threat from Russia, China, Iran and their proxies, its expansion is not just desirable but necessary.

Member Security - Increasing the membership of NATO enhances security for current and potential members. As Secretary General Stoltenberg said to Finnish President Niinistö when Finland was granted membership in 2023, “Joining NATO is good for Finland… and it is good for NATO… At times like these, friends and allies are more important than ever.”

Deterrent - The greater the alliance, the greater the deterrence for those who might attack us. Article 5 unites members in support of another if they are attacked – a crucial disincentive to our enemies. It is therefore fundamental in preventing further Russian expansion beyond Ukraine.

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Accepting further members is also essential in spreading Western values of democracy, individual liberty and rule of law.

Promoting Western Values - Accepting further members is also essential in spreading Western values of democracy, individual liberty and rule of law. These are basic requirements of membership according to the enlargement policy. In a time where there is growing disregard for these principles and increasing threats to democracy around the world, NATO is one of the few international organisations that affirms their importance. Unlike the UN, which accepts any state into membership, NATO seeks to better the livelihood of all its residents.

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However…

While many believe that an ever expanding NATO will mean more countries are protected from hostile states, a more realist approach should be taken to NATO expansion to prevent unnecessary confrontation.

Antagonising Hostile States - While the West rightly sees states like Russia and its allies as dangerous and illiberal, it should be more pragmatic about the power they actually hold over them. Russian leaders, particularly Putin, have made it clear that NATO expansion up to their borders would be perceived as a direct threat. We may not like his aggression but since the US can do little about it, they should aim not to provoke him

Sharpening Regional Conflicts - An inevitable consequence of NATO expansion is creating partisanship where it is unnecessary. It forces countries to take sides and pits those that are part of NATO against those are in the sphere of influence of another country such as Russia. Expansion simply creates more and more potential conflict.

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NATO expansion right up to the Russian border will be perceived as a threat by Moscow.

Reciprocity - NATO leaders should take a more pragmatic approach to the level of expansion that will be acceptable to countries not in the US sphere of influence. The US would undoubtedly not tolerate having a Russian backed country on or near their borders because of the threat that this poses. Similarly, NATO expansion right up to the Russian border will be perceived as a threat by Moscow so rather than making Europe safer, it will inevitably raise tensions.

Summary

The debate over NATO expansion is about what kind of compromise we want to make between being tough on our enemies and avoiding antagonising them. While NATO expansion arguably improves the security of its members because of the agreements in Article 5, it is also worth bearing in mind that it often creates unnecessary conflict. The promotion of Western values also seems ideal on the face of it but how far should this go if it risks regional conflict?

What do you think?

  1. Should we prioritise spreading Western values over antagonising potential aggressors?

  2. Has NATO expansion impacted Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine?

  3. How effective is NATO at providing a deterrent in practice?

What’s on earth is going on?

Things Just Got Real between Israel and Lebanon

Missile strikes have been exchanged between IDF and Hezbollah forces. Last week’s pager attacks on Hezbollah are likely the cause for the increased violence.

  • On the other hand, such an incursion can trigger a regional war with Iran and the US being dragged in the fight. Israel could also be overextending its forces to include Hamas and Hezbollah as well.

The US alongside the UK and other allies have called for a ceasefire in Lebanon and are actively working to try and descalate the on-going violence.

This newsletter was brought to you by writers: Jonah Levy, Kit Swift and Ozan Seljuk

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