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Should Supermajorities Be Required In Referendums?
Angela Rayner's Holidays ✈️ | Israel and Hezbollah Tensions ⚔️ | Boxing Upset 🥊
Welcome to today’s issue of The Debate Daily!
In today’s email: Most political decisions in democracies worldwide are made through indirect representation - voters select someone else to represent their voice in parliament. There is also another option: referendums, giving the electorate direct power to make their voices heard on a given issue. However, one of the issues with referendums is setting the threshold of voters required for the referendum to be successful. The debate hangs on whether supermajorities should be implemented for fairer and more representative results.
By Benjamin Chambers
The Headlines
Angela Rayner's Holidays: Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has denied breaking parliamentary rules over staying in a New York flat owned by a Labour donor. This has sparked criticism about senior Labour officials, including both Rayner and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, receiving gifts. Rayner acknowledged public frustration around the issue.
Israel and Hezbollah: Israel and Hezbollah are escalating their cross-border confrontations, with Israel reporting over 150 projectiles fired from Lebanon. This comes after Israel's pager attacks and air strikes last week.
Boxing Upset: Daniel Dubois delivered a surprising knockout victory over Anthony Joshua at Wembley Stadium. Dubois, seen as the underdog, shocked the 96,000 fans present with his impressive display, defeating the more accomplished Joshua.
Debate #013
Should Supermajorities Be Required In Referendums?
Some argue that referendums - votes by the entire electorate on a single issue - should require more than a 50% majority to pass. This can ensure protection against extreme opinions, greater public agreement and counteract lower turnout, especially when it comes to voting on quintessential political issues.
Protection against extremes: Supermajorities can safeguard against extreme outcomes. A proposal that 66% of voters support will likely be more moderate than one passed by a slim 51%. Switzerland uses a double majority system for referendums. A majority of regional districts must vote yes and a majority of voters nationally. Such a system aids a country with regional and linguistic differences, generating public consensus and kicking back any extremes.
More agreement: Having a supermajority decide allows for more public consensus and less fighting around close results. Referendums often involve controversial matters where public opinion is evenly split. The Brexit referendum was won on just 51.9% of the vote, leading to years of division, with many calling for a second referendum.
Supermajority referendums can be a safeguard against more extreme views
Counteracts low turnout: Supermajority referendums set a higher threshold of voter support for a decision to pass, helping to offset the effects of low turnout in simple majority referendums. This reduces the risk of highly engaged extreme minorities pushing through decisions with limited public backing. The 1979 Scottish Independence referendum had a clause requiring 40% of the total electorate to vote “yes” for it to pass. While 52% of votes cast were for independence, this only came to 32% of all the eligible voters, so the pro-independence campaign lost.
However…
Supermajorities cause different issues. The higher threshold breaks traditional democratic rules, results in gridlock and often has unspecified thresholds.
Breaking Democratic Norms: Historically and in most democracies today, decisions typically reflect the majority's will determined by the 50% threshold. Requiring 60% of the French Congress for constitutional changes in the French Republic can feel counterintuitive compared to the traditional perception of democracy for most citizens, and the electoral rules being 50%.
Gridlock: A supermajority can slow progress in providing effective answers to key issues. Amendments to the US Constitution require a two-thirds vote in favour by members of Congress. This rule is also tricky, given a narrow two-way split between Democrats and Republicans. That’s why just 27 of 11,000 proposed amendments have been ratified. While this condition ensures some stability, it makes it extremely difficult to pass significant reforms.
What is an appropriate threshold if not 50%
Difficulty in choosing a threshold: What is an appropriate threshold if not 50%? No definite answers have been made yet. Scotland’s referendum mentioned above was controversial because of the arbitrary requirement for 40% of the electorate to be in favour. The 55% boundary in the 2006 Montenegrin independence referendum was narrowly met, but the process of agreeing on this threshold was complicated and messy.
Summary
Requiring supermajorities for significant or controversial issues can encourage broader agreement and reduce disputes. However, setting an arbitrary threshold has its problems, and most voting systems worldwide rely on a simple majority to avoid gridlock. Supermajorities sound fairer on paper but do their hassles make it a better option than simple majority referendums? That’s the question for policymakers.
What do you think?
When is it most important to have broad public support in a referendum?
Is it fair to deviate from simple majorities?
What lessons do you take from examples like Brexit, or independence referendums?
What’s on Earth is going on?
US Navy
China Threat in Quad Summit
Last Saturday, Australia, Japan, India, and the US met at the Quad Alliance summit to discuss increasing Chinese military aggressiveness in the South China Sea.
On the one hand, the Quad sees China as a threat to peace. China is using its navy to contest the islands of other countries for their resources and naval bases. So, the Quad Alliance is strengthening its economic and military ties as a countermeasure.
On the other hand, China acts aggressively because it sees the US and its allies, from Japan to the Philippines, threatening its economic trade and national security in the region.
This newsletter was brought to you by writers: Benjamin Chambers
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