Should the UK Rejoin the EU?

SpaceX Starship Test Flight 🚀 | UK Economy Growth 📈 | Israeli Tanks in UN Post 🚨

Welcome to today’s issue of The Debate Daily!

In today’s email: In 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union by a small margin of 52% to 48% and after years of negotiations, the UK finally formally left in 2020. Since then, there has been significant debate about whether the decision has worked, whether we’ve made the most of leaving and if rejoining would be feasible. The British public seem to increasingly see Brexit as a mistake but politicians are generally keen to stand by the referendum result. Has Brexit done enough damage to justify rejoining or can we still make it work?

By Sofiya Povoas

The Headlines

Starship Test Flight Mission

  • SpaceX Starship Test Flight: Elon Musk’s SpaceX completed a groundbreaking feat as the lower half of its Starship rocket was successfully captured by mechanical arms during its fifth test flight. This manoeuvre, aimed at recovering and reusing the rocket, marks a significant milestone in space travel technology.

  • UK Economy Growth: The UK economy grew by 0.2% in August, rebounding after two months of stagnation. This growth aligns with economists' forecasts and was driven primarily by strong performances in construction, retail, and accountancy sectors.

  • Israeli Tanks in UN Post: The UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (Unifil) reported that two Israeli tanks forcibly entered a UN post in Ramyah, near the Israeli border. The tanks destroyed the gate and requested that the post turn off its lights, escalating tensions in the region.

Debate #025

Should the UK Rejoin the EU?

The worse bargaining position that Britain finds itself in coupled with the importance of focusing on other issues, particularly so soon after leaving the EU, mean that rejoining in the near future is both impractical and unlikely.

Bargaining Position - While it is not clear whether the UK could rejoin at this point, their bargaining power would be much reduced if they tried. Considering the terms the UK left on and the ever-changing Brexit deal, the EU would inevitably have the upper hand in negotiations to rejoin. The UK would most likely only be offered re-entry by joining the Eurozone and would see its influence weakened. Prior to Brexit, Britain was one of the big four but with other countries setting the terms, they’d enjoy much less power.

Too Early - It is very unlikely that both the EU and the UK public will be willing to start talks of the UK joining the EU. A political fatigue in the UK, much of which was caused by the lengthy Brexit process, means that any kind of referendum talks would be shut down. Similarly, for the EU, the hassle simply isn’t worth it so soon after the UK officially left. The polls show that in 2024, only 7% of voters see Britain’s relationship with the EU as of importance. Ultimately, voters don’t care enough to have the appetite for more negotiations and EU issues dominating the media.

Only 7% of voters see Britain’s relationship with the EU as of importance

Distraction - Rejoining the EU would require diverting the attention of Parliament and the government to the complexities of rejoining and negotiating a deal. However, there are currently too many issues on the agenda for this to be a realistic option. The new government has issues of their own, managing their response to crises in the Middle East and regaining the trust of voters, particularly on the economy. Starmer himself has dismissed it: ‘Britain will not rejoin the EU in my lifetime’. This rules out the possibility of politicians putting time and effort into the issue so achieving an effective deal simply isn’t realistic at this time.

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However…

The length of the Brexit process and the lack of political appetite in government to rejoin do not lessen the potential benefits that exist for the UK being part of the EU again. While the public might not see the issue as of huge importance, they do broadly support rejoining, and for good reason.

Economic Isolation - Rejoining the EU would inevitably mean rejoining the customs union and single market, having left as part of Brexit. This could have significant positive economic impacts, reversing the current partial economic isolation from the EU that the UK experiences. Bearing in mind that the EU is a key trading partner, the lower trading costs and free movement of goods would be a clear benefit, particularly for small businesses that are struggling to afford to import. An estimated 53% of all UK trade is with the EU so renewing ties makes significant economic sense.

Travel Opportunities - Since leaving the EU, travel opportunities and living abroad has become considerably harder. Something particularly affecting students and those wanting careers abroad, freedom of movement is no longer available so it is both more expensive and harder to live and study abroad. UK citizens now need a visa if they wish to live in an EU country for more than 90 days. Rejoining the EU would reintroduce freedom of movement, helping to give greater opportunity for travel and opening up more professional opportunities.

An estimated 53% of all UK trade is with the EU so renewing ties makes significant economic sense

Human Rights - When the UK left the EU, the decision was taken to stop the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights impacting UK law. Although law was copied over to UK law, this has already been altered by Parliament. Additionally, while the ECHR has no connection to the EU, leaving the EU has prompted discussions of the UK leaving the ECHR, not least because of the small boats crisis that developed following Brexit. If the UK were to rejoin the EU, this could ease the pressure to leave and ensure that these protections remain in place.

Summary

The decision by a referendum to leave the European Union in 2016 set off a train of negotiations that eventually culminated in the UK leaving the EU in 2020. Since then, there has been significant debate about whether the British public made the right decision and whether politicians have been able to strike a deal that works for the country. While the lengthy nature of the process has reduced people’s appetite for discussions on the EU, many polls suggest that the majority of British people see Brexit as a mistake. The evidence seems to back this up too - weakening ties with such a key trading partner seems economically illogical and Brexit has emboldened those who want to leave the ECHR, a potential threat to our ability to uphold human rights. However, some say that it is simply too soon to contemplate rejoining. We have bigger fish to fry at the moment and focusing on the issues in our immediate control will be more beneficial than rejoining the EU. It seems politicians don’t want to put the time and effort into a deal to rejoin so doing so at this time may not be worth the hassle. Ultimately, we have to ask ourselves whether Brexit has given us any benefits and if not, whether the prospects of it benefiting us in the future are good. Would we better off back in the EU, even if it were on less favourable terms?

What do you think?

  1. Was it right to call a referendum on EU membership and should there have been a second referendum once the realities of leaving the EU were made clearer?

  2. Why are many politicians, some who campaigned against leaving the EU, so keen to honour the result of the referendum despite public opinion changing since then?

  3. Have we squandered opportunities to benefit from Brexit or are there just fewer opportunities than the Leave campaign said there were?

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What On Earth Is Going On?

Netanyahu at UN1

Israel Wants UN Out

Israeli forces barge through UN peacekeeper positions in Lebanon for the past days, even pushing tanks through a UN base yesterday in an attempt to better quash Hezbollah forces.

  • On the one hand, the war with Hezbollah could explain why Israel is trangressing UN forces to better protect itself. This security concern can be seen by Netanyahu’s statement asking UN peacekeepers to leave over the threat of Hezbollah using them as human shields to fight back against the IDF.

What does this mean:

Relations between Israel and the UN have already deteriorated due to cases of humanitarian violations in Gaza. These events of attacking UN forces will further increase tensions and further degrade Israel international reputation and even its ability to make peace.

This newsletter was brought to you by writers: Sofiya Povoas and Kit Swift

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