Who Will Win the 2024 US Election?

Whilst Kamala Harris is more popular than Joe Biden as a fresh face in politics, she is practically tied with Trump with slim leads in certain swing states like Michigan. She is nonetheless well supported by women and young people in the US.

Change in leadership – Democrats surged in the polls after President Biden withdrew and Kamala Harris was nominated on the presidential ticket. Harris as a candidate has a seemingly clear agenda, especially on female reproductive rights and gun safety laws, combined with a strong position in the realm of identity politics. There has been a greater focus on policies than the candidate as an individual.  

Tim Walz - Mr. Walz has emerged as a crucial figure as Ms. Harris's running mate for Vice President. As a middle-American, relatable ‘coach’ figure, he stands as a backdrop to soothe any fears sprouting from Trump’s rhetoric of ‘comrade Kamala’. Secondly, the ‘weird’ rhetoric that he established contrasts with Biden’s ‘doomsday’ image of Trump. 

Harris as a candidate has a seemingly clear agenda, especially on female reproductive rights and gun safety laws.

Women’s reproductive rights – Ever since Roe vs Wade was overturned in 2022; the issue of women’s reproductive rights have been at the heart of the polarity and division in the US. Harris has been one of its most vocal opposers and has made restoring Roe v. Wade a fulcrum of her campaign. In her agenda, she promises to put the issue back in the Federal court and pass a law protecting reproductive freedoms. This strong stance could sway many female voters, with 40% of women under 30 saying that the issue would be their main voting point and win her party the election. 

Trump is still a powerful candidate in politics with a very loyal base of supporters. His populist and charismatic persona along with definitive stances on issues like immigration still appeals widely to millions of Americans. Along with Harris, he is also extremely close in the polls in this election.

Trump’s MAGA base – Trump’s base of supporters see him as absolutely infallible and ‘messianic’. Such a dimension in a candidate’s support will prove vital in the volatility of a Presidential election, especially in the key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. He is believed to ‘save’ the American people and ‘Make America Great Again’ which strongly resonates with millions of his supporters.

Immigration - In a recent poll, 61% of voters said that immigration is a very important issue for them in this election. Although Trump’s erratic ‘dogs and cats’ rhetoric has turned many voters away, it is a concrete stance nonetheless. Harris has been forced into addressing the issue in her campaign purely through Trump’s barrage on the topic and her murky position on immigration makes her look ‘weaker’.  

Trump’s base of supporters see him as absolutely infallible and ‘messianic’. 

The Swing States – Uncertainty shrouds any US election due to the Swing States. In states such as Nevada and Arizona, the candidates are nail-biting close, almost tied. Winning these seats could make or break the election for either Harris or Trump and much of their campaigning is spent on these states to help them get ahead in the polls and increase their chances of victory.