Will Abortion be the Key Issue in the US Election?

In recent years, reproductive rights in America have faced significant challenges, particularly following the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022. This has ignited a political battle between the pro-life and the pro-choice movements, which has driven abortion to the issue at the top of the ticket.

Growing popularity - 69% of Americans believe that abortion should be legalised in the first trimester, even in traditionally conservative states such as Kentucky and Kansas. Abortion has already played a pivotal role in Democratic victories in the 2022 midterms and 2023 elections for the Virginia legislature, where Democrats put reproductive rights at the centre of their campaign. For many, the presidential election is seen as a referendum on abortion, with 61% of voters saying the election’s outcome will significantly affect access to abortion.

Abortion is the number one issue for suburban women in swing seats, a key demographic that candidates must capture to win the election.

Party stances - Abortion has become a central issue for Republicans and Democrats, with their handling of the issue significantly affecting their support. The Democrats centred the DNC around abortion. However, abortion is an issue with some level of cross-party agreement, with almost a third of Republicans supporting a federal law legalising abortion. This has led to an incoherent response from the Republican party, who are rapidly scrambling to reposition themselves on reproductive rights in this year’s election.

Mobilising women - Abortion is the number one issue for suburban women in swing seats, a key demographic that candidates must capture to win the election. Women, especially white women who previously supported Trump, are shifting to the Democrats over reproductive rights. Stories of women facing challenges in accessing abortion under restrictive state laws resonate with female voters, fuelling their engagement in this election. 

While abortion is a vital issue in the US election, it is not the primary one. Many other voters have eyes on other key issues, such as the economy, immigration and foreign policy.

The Economy - Economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds, with 81% stating that the economy will affect their voting intentions this November. Economic anxiety is at its highest since the 2008 recession, with 52% of voters stating that the economy is ‘extremely important’. Economic confidence is especially low in the US, with 48% of voters categorising the economic conditions as ‘poor’. Inflation, job insecurity and cost of living are daily realities for many, making the economy their primary focus when voting in November. 

Economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds, with 81% stating that the economy will affect their voting intentions this November.

Immigration - For Republican voters, immigration is a key issue, particularly in border states such as Arizona, which rising numbers of migrants have impacted. Over 55% of US citizens view illegal immigration as a critical threat to US interests. Donald Trump’s rhetoric against immigrants, stating them as ‘rapists’, ‘not human’ and ‘poisoning the blood of our country’, resonates with his supporters, likely making this a decisive issue for many Republicans. 

Foreign policy - Rising geopolitical tensions, especially with China, are increasingly concerning to the electorate, with 81% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats viewing China as a threat. Additionally, 70% of Americans support peace talks in Ukraine, as they do not see an end to the conflict. Moreover, the Israeli attacks on Gaza are also affecting voting intentions, with major concern over the blatant Israeli violation of human rights and international law. 78% of Democrats support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, while 91% of Muslim voters in swing states say a lasting cease-fire would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. With 76% of voters believing that American foreign policy is headed in the wrong direction, these international concerns will likely affect voting behaviour.