Will US politics ever be less tribal?

Some believe that American democracy can hold out against polarisation. The strict two-term presidential limit and short four-year general election cycle are signs of a chance for change. With different leaders holding sway over the major parties and a younger generation engaged in politics, there is a possibility of calming waters.

One-off leaders: Inflammatory leaders like Donald Trump are often simply an aberration, a temporary deviation from the norm of more cordial political relations. As Kamala Harris likes to point out, Trump effectively blocked a bipartisan deal to tighten southern border security, a policy which the Republicans and a majority of Americans support. This unwillingness to cooperate with political opponents, combined with Trump’s tone and language, means he should be viewed as an exception rather than the new rule.

Just as political division rose, it could fall back down

Historical cooperation: In America’s recent past, bipartisan bills and shared goals were more common. Ideological diversity within parties across the 1950s and ‘60s saw a ‘post-war consensus’, not only in the US but also in other countries including the UK. This historical background shows that partisanship could still occur if the future political context and circumstances allow for such cooperation. Just as political division rose, it could fall back down.  

Generational shift: There has been a steady rise in independent voters – those who self-identify as independent, neither Republican nor Democrat. In the last 20 years, this proportion of voters has risen from under a third to 49% of all voters. This is combined with a new generation of young people who value diversity and inclusion, bringing the potential to bridge divides and have more nuanced conversation.

On the other hand, many see little hope for change. They say that institutions are set up to make partisanship inevitable and that the culture shift towards political polarisation is increadibly hard to reverse.

Information pipeline: Voters are increasingly partisan and characterised by their opinions. This increasing partisanship is a result of the US media landscape. Most people get their news and current affairs from highly partisan private channels like Fox News or MSNBC. These are the two most-watched cable TV news channels in America. Social media algorithms also feed viewers overwhelmingly with content from political positions they align with. This fuels partisanship by presenting biased views to voters, acting like an echo chamber.

Voters are increasingly partisan and characterised by their opinions due to the US media landscape

Strong language: It isn’t only Trump who resorts to strong language and aggressive campaigning. Harris recently described Trump as a fascist, and President Biden made waves by appearing to describe Trump supporters as ‘garbage’. This aggressive rhetoric comes along with increased political violence – the January 6^th riots, the hammer attack on Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and two recent assassination attempts on Trump. With such unprecedented events, it is hard to see the possibility of the situation possibly improving.

Institutional set-up: The voting system used in the US is similar to the UK’s ‘first past the post’, where the winner takes all in each geographical constituency or district. Why does this matter? It matters because ‘first past the post’ systems can generate elections with two main parties, leading to political division between the two camps. With only two feasible parties, it is all too easy to be strongly tribal and adversarial. While there are some moves to reform voting systems, this is limited to local areas and is difficult to pass.